Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a statement on Friday evening about Syria that was construed by many as “assertive” and is due to cause international concern. Thus, the Turkish PM, who has won a great victory against the military leadership in his country, said that the situation in Syria could no longer be tolerated and that something must be done to stop Assad’s violence against his own nation.

He said that Mehmet Davutoglu, deputing Foreign Minister, will be in Damascus on Tuesday, where he is to discuss with the authorities about the situation in this country, where more than 1,600 people are reported killed since the conflict started five months ago.

Turkey has been very patient and has waited to see how situation was progressing, but the demands Ankara had made of the regime led by Bashar al-Assad have not been met, the PM added.

For that, Davutoglu will convey the Syrian leaders a very serious message from Turkey, and depending on the response new measures will be taken.

Erdogan maintained that his government did not have the latitude to stand by and watch what is going on in the neighboring country, and that his position toward the conflict is limited by the two options: to press on or loose face.

By pressing on Erdogan actually means intervention in Syria. The face could not be lost only if Syria decides to stop killing its citizens.

The most important part of the statement made by Erdogan is that Syria is an “internal affair” of Turkey, not a international situation.

From this perspective, Turkey’s eagerness to intervene in Syria can be seen as a means to settle some territorial disputes with the former colony.

Map of Turkey and Syria

Turkish intelligence have been said to have stirred violence in the past in Syria, but an intervention was thwarted so far. Turkey could seize the opportunity now, as the amount of people who die every day at the hand of a demented regime increases, and a humanitarian aid could be invoked to wrap an invasion into.

Since Assad started killing his own people, back in mid-March, some 12,000 Syrians sought refuge on Turkish territory. If they continue to stay there, the humanitarian situation can easily be invoked.

But they don’t. Reports say that half of them are already going back to Syria, which means that the Turks should hurry up if they want their campaign to succeed.

Furthermore, Turkey hopes that the United Nations will finally pass a resolution by which they would condemn the death toll and the use of violence. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke to the Syrian leaders in Saturday and is expected to present his conclusions this week.

Assad promised free election and multi-party system. That shouldn’t worry Ankara too much. He made these promises before he ordered tanks to open fire with the machine guns installed on them.

What should worry the Turks though is the fact that European leaders see through their plan to use what is happening in Syria as an excuse for an invasion. Turkey has presented NATO with a plan of intervention that would bring the situation under control, but the Europeans have showed little interest in it, suspecting that a sectarian fight and a territorial dispute may be underneath the good intentions of the Turkish leaders.

Turkish Military

Erdogan’s message, which was met by Syrian diplomats with an equal assertiveness, is not intended only for the Western ears, inclined to hear messages about human rights preservation, but also for the Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia or Qatar, who could be willing to sponsor a campaign in Syria that would strengthen Sunni Islam in this country.

The only thing that is not yet determined is whether Turkey has the capacity to project its military power abroad, after what was called “defanging of the military.”

Erdogan may have won a victory against the military leaders but the fight is far from being over, as much remains to be done in order for the Turkish army to be brought to the status of mere state organ, as it is in all the democratic countries.

However, “loosing face” now would mean for Erdogan the claim to assert Turkey as a serious player in the region after the dramatic changes this part of the world has been going through since the beginning of the year.

Erdogan’s words about Syria give another meaning to the declarations made on Friday by Russian ambassador by the UN, Dmitry Rogozin, who said that a plan of ground invasion was being developed by NATO, and that it would be executed any time soon.

Turkey is a member of NATO, in fact it has the second-largest force in this organization. Was Rogozin talking about Erdogan’s “Ottoman” ambitions or about a broader plan, one that would include Iran in it in the long run?

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