Members of the Arab League

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Members of the Arab League

Crackdown continues in Syria as the governmental troops on Thursday have made arrests in the Hama province, where the defectors from the army engaged the security forces in a surge of violence that was deemed by some as the beginning of a civil war in Syria. The raids come soon after the Arab League gave Assad’s regime three more days to end military action all over the country, before a final decision can be made on whether to suspend Syria from the organization.
On Wednesday, the Arab League gathered in Rabat, Morocco, where they made a decision that was interpreted in various ways, some considering that it was not a clear suspension of Syria, some saying that it was.
The determination to suspend Syria over the violent repression of the people was considered a test for the Arab League itself, which was considered in the region an ineffectual body, composed of various authoritarian leaders.
The protocol adopted in Rabat did not make specific reference to the suspension of the restive country, and to the upholding of the decision made in Cairo over the weekend. However, a Moroccan foreign ministry official confirmed that the suspension was upheld.
The AL is to send observers in Syria to see how the regime is respecting the agreement to which it is a part. The regime announced that more than 1,000 people “with no blood on their hands” were released on Wednesday. On the other hand, activists say that 22 people were killed on Wednesday alone all over Syria.
The American State Department said that the decision to suspend Assad from the Arab League will make it harder for the supporting countries of the regime, Russia and China, to protect it.
Earlier this week the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the attack of the Free Syrian Army on a governmental military base could be the sign that the country is sinking into civil war, and warned that the sides should settle their differences through negotiations.
Defections from the Syrian army become more frequent by the day, as activists report. A former captain in the intelligence said that in one day 70 troops from the regular army and 13 from the special forces have changed sides, bringing the Free Syrian Army more sophistication and manpower.
The former captain, quoted by The Guardian, said that if a no-fly zone were to be imposed on Syria, the regime would be toppled within 24 hours. The idea of a no-fly zone has been supported by the Syrian opposition too, even though the Arab League made it clear that their suspension of Syria was not a green light for a no-fly zone, as it had been the case with Libya.
On Wednesday, the Free Syrian Army said it attacked a military base in the outskirts of the capital where people were being detained by the security forces.
In talks with the British Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday Jordanian king Abdullah II proposed that a contact group be created on Syria the same way it was created in Libya.
Soon after the attack on its embassy in Damascus, the French foreign ministry recalled the ambassador, and the French foreign minister Alain Juppe said that France would work with the Syrian opposition to find an alternative for the regime.a
The imminent fall of the Syrian regime is sure to end some long-standing ties, one of the most important being the tie with Iran, which for decades helped fueling organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, which fight against Israel.
This is why, the Iranian regime urged Assad to engage in some talks with the people telling him he cannot rely on force alone to settle the conflict.
Russia and China will also be hurt if Assad falls, considering that these countries had economic interests here dating back from the Communist era of the Soviet.
On the other hand, the breaking of the tie between Syria and Iran would favor the Saudi Arabian regime and other American allies in the region.

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