Israeli Air Force

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Israeli Air Force

The news about Israel making preparations to attack Iranian facilities continue to stir different reactions in the entire world, as some consider Netanyahu’s move just another bluff, while others believe that his threat is serious this time and that the air strikes are imminent.
On Friday China had to warn Iran about the continuing efforts to build a nuclear program in their country, reasserting that China does not condone the proliferation of the use of nuclear technology in the Middle East. At the same time, China also warns against the use of force in Iran, alluding to the Israeli plan to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities.
China and Russia have backed four rounds of UN sanctions against Iranian nuclear program but said they would not back another, and criticized the unilateral steps taken by the United States and the United Britain against Tehran.
The entire situation escalated on Tuesday as news were leaked to the press about discussions in the Israeli cabinet about the necessity to hit Iranian nuclear facilities until it is too late. The Prime Minister launched an investigation into who leaked the documents to the press.
The reports were showing earlier in the week that the Prime Minister Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak were attempting to convince other important members of the cabinet to support the move.
The first to be convinced was Avigdor Lieberman, who, according to Haaretz, previously had some doubts about supporting this plan. Others leading ministers hinted to the idea on Tuesday but one of them said that no such subject was discussed in the governmental meeting.
The matter was brought into discussion by Nahum Barnea, a columnist for Yedioth Ahronoth, who said that something big was about to happen in the Middle East that would influence the lives of the Jewish people for generations to come.
The analysts began analyzing the possibility of an attack on Iran in the next weeks. The Iranian nuclear program is progressing slowly, according to the intelligence, and it is only three years away that Iran could have the technology to actually be a threat to Israel.
An attack on Iran should have, analysts say, a legitimacy, a necessity and capacity. That it is legitimate it is not in question, considering the Iranian rhetoric about Israel combined with the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which stopped short of saying that Iran is building a nuclear military program, while its reports are expected to offer data about a possible military dimension of this program.
The necessity and capacity could be discussed. First off, the idea of attacking Iran must take into account the idea that the United States and NATO would be by Israel’s side. This could be a problem, since the United States is committed more to the idea of settling the conflict by means of negotiation rather then by engaging into conflict.
The Obama administration would need a pretext the size of the 9/11 to have a motivation to go to war with the Iranians and succeed in convincing the Americans of the necessity of such an endeavor at a time when the American society is confronted with its economic wars, and the country is reeling from two wars against terror which have practically brought the economy down.
However, if Israel is deciding to move on, it is expected that the Americans would follow and will help them. An attack in winter is considered by many a very dangerous enterprise, because of the clouds which would interfere with the guiding systems of the Israeli weaponry. This would explain the rush to do it now, as a window of opportunity exists befor the winter sets in.
The strategic affairs minister Moshe Ya’alon said that he would prefer an American military attack on an Israeli one. The Interior minister said it was a complicated matter, while intelligence and atomic energy minister said he was in favor of an American attack, too. Former defense minister said that the plan was “a horrific scenario.”
The estimates are that an attack on Iran would delay the nuclear program of the Islamic republic by four years at most, and therefore the question must be analyzed as to whether it is worth doing it.
Another problem is the capacity of the national front to face the rockets and the missiles that are expected to be sent by Iran and its allies, Hezbollah and Hamas, into its territory.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military conducted an exercise in Italy with the NATO army, and the British media announced that preparations were under way in view of a possible military conflict with Iran. Israel also made some anti-missile drill over the last days.

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